California Governor Race 2026

Polling trend — Becerra margin

No NYT California poll or average was available to include as of November 2, 2026; NYT polling pages could not be accessed in the supplied research. No new independent governor poll was located for October 31–November 2. IGS October 30 remains the newest independent release; ActiVote October 31 is lower-weight tracking. Emerson remains featured by editorial preference, not recency.

DDHQ polling average (aggregate, not a poll), as of October 31, 2026: Becerra 60.5%, Hilton 35.4% (D+25.1). This combines surveys; there is no single sample, field period, sponsor or margin of error. The accessible page does not expose all component polls. DDHQ aggregate source.

• ActiVote — lower-weight tracking poll: October 17, 2026 – October 31, 2026, +26.4 points

  Pollster

  ActiVote — lower-weight tracking poll

  Sample

  400 likely midterm voters

  Field dates

  October 17, 2026 – October 31, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±4.9 percentage points (average expected error)

  ActiVote release; external sponsor not stated. Small tracking sample weighted by demographics and political spectrum. Forced two-way result; undecided not reported. Lower-weight, not a headline number.

• UC Berkeley IGS — Release #2026-23: October 19, 2026 – October 25, 2026, +27 points

  Pollster

  UC Berkeley IGS — Release #2026-23

  Sample

  1,477 likely voters (weighted, including those already voted), from 2,787 registered voters

  Field dates

  October 19, 2026 – October 25, 2026

  Margin of error

  About ±3.0 percentage points (likely voters)

  UC Berkeley IGS, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Online in English and Spanish; PDI voter-file sample. Favorable/unfavorable: Becerra 53%/41%, Hilton 34%/56%. NPP/other: Becerra 59%, Hilton 31%, undecided 10%; subgroup uncertainty is larger. September IGS: 58%/33%. Newest independent governor release verified in this update.

• Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC): October 16, 2026 – October 22, 2026, +24 points

  Pollster

  Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)

  Sample

  1,086 likely voters

  Field dates

  October 16, 2026 – October 22, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±3.8 percentage points

  Nonpartisan PPIC; supported by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation. Ipsos online KnowledgePanel, in English and Spanish.

• SurveyUSA: October 19, 2026 – October 24, 2026, +22 points

  Pollster

  SurveyUSA

  Sample

  799 likely voters from 1,000 California adults

  Field dates

  October 19, 2026 – October 24, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±5.3 percentage points (primary-source credibility interval)

  KGTV-TV San Diego and the San Diego Union-Tribune; news sponsors, no partisan sponsor. Online nonprobability panel from Cint USA, weighted to demographic, religious and party-registration targets.

• Emerson College Polling: October 17, 2026 – October 19, 2026, +27 points

  Pollster

  Emerson College Polling

  Sample

  1,000 California likely voters

  Field dates

  October 17, 2026 – October 19, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±3.1 percentage points (credibility interval)

  Independent Emerson release; no partisan sponsor. Weighted by gender, education, party registration and region; MMS text-to-web and panel interviews matched to the Aristotle voter file. Leaner-pushed result: Becerra 64%, Hilton 36%; headline remains 60%/33% with 7% undecided.

• UC Berkeley IGS — Release #2026-19: September 15, 2026 – September 20, 2026, +25 points

  Pollster

  UC Berkeley IGS — Release #2026-19

  Sample

  4,512 likely voters, weighted subset of 6,989 registered voters

  Field dates

  September 15, 2026 – September 20, 2026

  Margin of error

  About ±2.0 percentage points

  UC Berkeley IGS; funding provided in part by the Los Angeles Times. Online in English and Spanish. Favorable/unfavorable: Becerra 48%/40%; Hilton 35%/51%.

• Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC): September 4, 2026 – September 10, 2026, +22 points

  Pollster

  Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)

  Sample

  1,103 likely voters

  Field dates

  September 4, 2026 – September 10, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±3.8 percentage points

  Supported by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation; conducted online in English and Spanish by Ipsos using its probability-based KnowledgePanel.

• Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times: August 3, 2026 – August 9, 2026, +18 points

  Pollster

  Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times

  Sample

  2,310 likely voters

  Field dates

  August 3, 2026 – August 9, 2026

  Margin of error

  ±2.5 percentage points

  Berkeley IGS Poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

The selected Emerson, PPIC, Berkeley IGS and SurveyUSA polls since August show Becerra ahead by 18 to 27 points, with the late-October range between +22 and +27. This is not a claim about every published poll.

Polling average: 270toWin’s five-poll average, checked October 27, 2026: Becerra 58.0%, Hilton 36.6%. This external aggregate mixes methodologies and includes Emerson with leaners; it is not a new survey and has no single sample, field period, sponsor or margin of error.

Emerson context — same October survey

Undecided 7%. Including leaners: Becerra 64%, Hilton 36%. Independents: Becerra 46%, Hilton 36%. Newsom approval/disapproval: 46%/43%; Trump: 33%/63%. Top issues: economy 45%, housing 17%, healthcare 10%, immigration 10%.

Independent Emerson release; no partisan sponsor. Weighted by gender, education, party registration and region; MMS text-to-web and panel interviews matched to the Aristotle voter file. Leaner-pushed result: Becerra 64%, Hilton 36%; headline remains 60%/33% with 7% undecided. Subgroup credibility intervals are larger than the overall interval. Emerson primary source, published October 21, 2026.